Download Agent-Based Models of Energy Investment Decisions by Tobias Wittmann PDF

By Tobias Wittmann

This e-book demonstrates how bounded rational selection types should be standardized and parameterized through socio-economic info. targeting inner most power know-how funding judgements, the writer indicates how diverse consultant brokers will be developed utilizing seek principles, research instruments and selection thoughts. Diffusion curves for strength applied sciences similar to sun creditors, boilers and potency enhancements for structures are calculated. additional, the version is prolonged to review the impression of companies’ festival on know-how diffusion. The modeling procedure offered during this ebook may perhaps function a template for functions in different domain.

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Additional resources for Agent-Based Models of Energy Investment Decisions

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Modelers will have to specify different types of agents who exhibit different distinct behavior patterns as well as an explicit set of technology and energy efficiency options which are potentially available to them. The model cannot be used to predict the outcome of a single decision, but it can be used to estimate the outcome of representative decisions of individuals who belong to the same group. The following sections introduce the goals, decision rules, and analysis tools which are used within the model.

To estimate future cash-flows, they could either refer to past payments or calculate the operational cost from usage projections. More detailed information can be obtained if they calculate the payback period which compares investment cost with operational and maintenance cost. 1) C ref − C Using the net present value (npv), decision makers do not only include investment and operational and maintenance costs associated with the alternatives, but compare those costs at their net present value. To apply this method, they need to select a personal discount factor i, a time horizon T, and an estimate of the development of future costs.

They are always willing to experiment. Having a professional background, Susan knows how to evaluate investments. She is concerned with costeffectiveness, but is also willing to spend more than necessary if the product is innovative, has good press, and/or the potential to become a new standard. Susan was attracted to the energy field when she learned about the liberalization of the energy market and the ensuing potential of small companies selling small and innovative technologies. She is also aware of peaking conventional energy sources and the dependency their usage imposes.

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